Ski Day - Made in Spain

So today I went skiing with Angel, Evaristo and their girlfriends (although their girlfriends decided to stay in the cafeteria for reasons that will become apparent to the reader after the first two pictures).

We went to a ski resort named "La Covatilla" which is probably the smallest place I've been to in all my years of skiing. Small is not necessarily bad (;P). However, in this case it was not only small but also pretty warm, which means that instead of snowing it was raining for most of the day... Skiing while it's snowing is not too much fun but it is tolerable (particulary if you haven't skied in a long time and it's the first day of the season). However, skiing while raining is hell...

We got to the place early in the morning and this is what we found: rain! Here Angel is trying to convince me that a few drops of water are actually good for you (like Guinness)

Half way up the lift the drops of rain turned into snow (although the consistency was half water and half snow)

Evaristo and I half frozen on the ski lift... At this point I'm totally soaked... even my underwear is wet. The combination of rain at the bottom of the slopes and wet snow at the top is "typical Spanish"... that's probably why Spanish skiers are tougher than northern European... we are used to more extreme skiing conditions!

Lunchtime... I'm about to freeze... (we obviously didn't go back to the slopes after lunch)

So that was our ski day... ok, ok, I'll admit it: I wish there were real mountains in Spain with decent snow and not this watery crap...

There you go, I said it: I wish the Alps were in Spain... we may have to go over there and conquer them someday ;P

Tomorrow I'll be flying to Florida so I'm not sure whether I'll be able to post any updates...

Good Poker Session

Hi, I'm back... I've been playing for less than one and a half hours and I've made $221.57 so it's been a pretty good session. Here are the stats:

and a graph of the session:

Today I've played NL50 so making over 4 buy-ins in less than 1.5 hours is not bad at all (that's a winrate of $180/hour). As I've already mentioned in this blog, lately I've been finding it very hard to focus while playing poker: for some reason it seems that I can't stop thinking about Lady Waterfall while I'm playing so a couple of weeks ago I decided to move down from NL100 to NL50. I think it has been a good decision because there are more donkeys, swings are smaller and I can still make a decent hourly rate.

I think it's a bad idea to play at your highest limit tables if you're having problems concentrating so I'll stay at NL50 until I get over my current personal issues...

Tomorrow I may go skiing... I'll keep you posted. In the meantime, I hope you're happy...

Poker Thoughts: 3-betting Preflop

Today I've pretty much wasted my day so far: I had to pick up a certified letter from the post office and after driving all the way over there it was closed. I then went to the gym and it was closed also. Apparently today is a holiday in Spain so I haven't been able to do any of the stuff I wanted to do before leaving for Florida.

I've decided to play some poker (yes, I've purchased a legal license of Poker Tracker 3) but before that I'll write the promised post about 3-betting preflop. First of all, for those of you who don't know what 3-betting is, it's the same as reraising. That is, putting in a third bet after someone has already raised.

Usually, poor players don't 3-bet a lot. It's not unlikely to see players with just a 1.5% 3-bet preflop percentage. These players will only 3-bet with AA, KK and sometimes QQ. Therefore, their 3-bet range is hugely polarized, meaning that when they 3-bet you know that they are holding a monster and you can fold your hand without losing any money. By 3-betting only AA and KK players make your decisions very easy: if you raise and get reraised by one of these players you just have to fold and move on to the next hand.

In order to balance your 3-betting range you need to 3-bet not only your premium hands like AA and KK but also other hands that may be a little bit more speculative. This way your opponents will not be able to put you on a monster every time you 3-bet and you'll make their decisions post flop a lot harder.

Here are a couple of points to keep in mind when 3-betting.

1. 3-betting is required in order to balance your range of hands and hide your monsters (if you only 3-bet AA and KK you're helping your opponents make the right decisions when playing against you). A 5% 3-betting preflop percentage is reasonable.
2. 3-betting against certain opponents can be very profitable because they will put you on a very strong hand and usually fold preflop. Aggressive opponents tend to raise a very wide range of hands when they are on the cutoff or on the button. Take advantage of this tendency by 3-betting from the button or the blinds.

Example 1:

$0.50 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($80.25)
MP ($46.70)
CO ($73.50)
Button ($33.31)
Hero (SB) ($52.70)
BB ($46.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 9
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.75, 2 folds

Typical situation: CO is 21/12/3.2 (he will open-raise 12% of this starting hands, meaning that he will probably open-raise up to 20-25% of his starting hands from the CO and button). When he raises from the CO as he usually does I give him no credit and 3-bet from the SB with my connectors (which play well against his range of hands).

CO folds his hand and I take down the pot right there.

Total pot: $4

Results:
Hero didn't show 8, 9 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $4

Example 2:

$0.50 BB (5 handed)

MP ($53.80)
Button ($146)
SB ($49.50)
Hero (BB) ($98.55)
UTG ($39.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 10
3 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold

Here, everybody folds to the SB, who is once again an aggressive player (25/18/3). He raises trying to take down the pot (with those stats he will probably raise there with pretty much any hand). I give him no credit and 3-bet him knowing that I will also have position over him for the rest of the hand.

Total pot: $4

Results:
Hero didn't show J, 10 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $4

Example 3:

$0.50 BB (6 handed)

SB ($24.60)
BB ($33.75)
UTG ($33.10)
MP ($26.24)
CO ($52.30)
Hero (Button) ($51.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, K
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds

Once again I take advantage of my position against an aggressive player who open-raises a lot preflop (19/17/2.3) in order to 3-bet his raise a take down the pot preflop.

Total pot: $4.25

Results:
Hero didn't show 9, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $4.25

Workout Reconsideration

I should get out of here (“here” being my office). For the last few days I’ve been staying late trying to finish as much stuff as possible because today is my last day at the office (tomorrow I’m driving to the plant, next week I’ll be attending meetings in Florida and the following week I’ll be out of here). However, it seems that work never ends: there is always new stuff that comes up regardless of how many hours I work so I think it’s time to call it a day and go to the gym. All the stuff I haven’t finished will have to wait for… who knows how long...

A couple of weeks ago I started reconsidering my workout routine in order to make it more functional, that is, my workouts must serve the purpose of improving my performance in at least one of the following sports: skiing, sex and climbing.

Obviously, working out will, in general, improve your performance in any sport. However, if you’re interested in specific sports, there are certain workout routines and exercises that will help your performance more than others. After some introspection, I’ve decided that the two factors that I’ve not been paying enough attention to are aerobic resistance and grip so I’ve been introducing some changes in my workout in order to address these two weaknesses.

Aerobic endurance is easy to improve: run! I’ve never been a fan of running but lately I’ve been forcing myself to run at least twice a week and I’m already feeling the difference (the good thing about being bad at something is that it’s easy to notice even the slightest improvements). Both skiing and rock climbing require brief periods of pure anaerobic strength and relatively long, baseline periods of sustained aerobic effort so I think improving my aerobic resistance will improve my performance in both of them. In the case of sex and mountain climbing (the Mont Blanc goal for example) it’s even more apparent that endurance is critical.

On to the second weakness: grip. Last summer I only went rock climbing a couple of times but I got a bit frustrated because, even though I was feeling strong, the first thing to go was my grip. And, once your forearms are gone, you’re done climbing even if your other upper body muscles could keep pushing. I had never done a forearm workout before but I’ve been doing some research online and now I’ve included grip exercises in my weekly training routine. Hopefully I’ll gain strength and endurance in my grip as well as strengthening individual fingers, especially the thumb. I’ve read that static hangs on a bar is the best way to improve the strength of your forearms so I’m doing that as well as some forearm curls with dumbbells. After a few weeks with this new workout I should go to the climbing wall in Ciudad Universitaria to see if I feel any improvement. The forearm workouts are not going to help me with any of my other two sports (well, maybe if we consider that jerking-off is sex…) but as long as they improve my rock climbing I’ll be happy.

Inspiration

There is snow everywhere... I have the feeling this is going to be a great ski season. Here is some inspiration by Seth Morrison, the best skier ever. For those of you who may be wondering: no, he is not Austrian (there are decent skiers who are not Austrian-born, as amazing as this might be ;P)



"going to need this"... lol

Poker Thoughts: Odds

I just came back from running. The track was closed so I had to jump the fence but it was very relaxing: I was the only one running, the lights were off so everything was dark and you could see the stars. It was a little bit cold but I ran with my North Face jacket on so hopefully I won't get sick tomorrow...

I've been thinking about a very basic concept in poker which is usually misunderstood by beginners: the number of outs available to make your hand and how to calculate your odds. "Outs" are those cards that can complete your draw and give you a winning hand. It is important to keep in mind that you rarely know how many outs you really have because your opponent's hand is unknown. However, if you're able to put your opponent on a reasonable range of hands you can usually figure out how many outs you have and whether it is profitable to call your opponent's bet in order to "buy" an extra card and try to make your hand.

Here is an example of how sometimes a drawing hand can actually be ahead of a made hand due to the enormous amount of outs left in the deck:

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($66.12)
MP ($102.15)
CO ($111.55)
Button ($119.78)
SB ($135.55)
Hero (BB) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, UTG calls $1

Here MP makes a very small raise and he gets 4 callers (I'm in the big blind and I call the extra dollar with a weak hand because there are so many callers that I'm getting good odds to call with pretty much any random hand)

Flop: ($8.50) 9, J, 10 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, MP raises to $34, 1 fold, Hero calls $34, 1 fold

Monster drawing flop for me: I get an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. I'm assuming any club, any 7 or any Q will give me a winning hand so I have 9 outs for the clubs, 3 outs for the three sevens left in the deck (the 7c has already been counted as part of the 9 clubs) and 3 Queens (Qc has also been included in the 9 clubs that will give me a flush). Therefore, I have 15 outs.

However, the action before me has been very strong: UTG has bet pot and MP has re-raised pot. This strong action leads me to believe that MP has a made hand that he is trying to protect from a club draw. Therefore, he probably doesn't have any clubs and my outs to the flush draw are good. He could have a made straight with QK, an overpair (QQ, KK, AA) or a set (99, TT, JJ).

At this point there are $8.50 + $8.50 + $34 = $51 in the pot and I need to pay $34 to see an extra card. Is it a profitable call?

Options:

• Opponent has an overpair (QQ, KK, AA). In this case it's a coin flip: 50.5% for my opponent vs 49.5% probability of winning the hand for me. Therefore, in this case my call is clearly profitable: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 49.5%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.5 * $85) = $8.5 per hand. Note that these are only the exact pot odds but my opponent still has a $66.15 stack behind him so my implied odds are much better (Implied Value is a cool concept that takes into account future betting but we'll leave that for another day).
  
  
• Opponent has a made straight with KQ or 78. In this case he is a 56% favorite vs my hand. Therefore, my EV is: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 44%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.44 * $85) = $3.4 per hand. Still a profitable call even if my opponent already has the straight!
  
  
• Opponent has a set (99, TT, JJ). In this case I'm in worse shape: I'm a 61%-39% underdog so my EV is: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 44%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.39 * $85) = -$0.85 per hand. I would be losing $0.85 per hand in the long run if my opponent always had a set in this situation.

Now, I really don't know what my opponent has but I could say he has a 33% chance of having each of the hands discussed above. Therefore, my combined EV would be 0.33*$8.5 + 0.33*$3.4 - 0.33*$0.85 = $3.65 per hand on the long run.

Note that the expected value calculated above does not take into account the fact that my opponent still has $66.15 left. The odds of making my hand are computed based on two cards left to come (turn and river) and my opponent may go all-in on the turn so I may have to pay an extra $66.15 in order to get to the river. At this point, however, I'm pretty much decided to go all the way.

Turn: ($85) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $66.15 (All-In), Hero calls $64 (All-In)

The 6s is not one of my outs and my opponent goes All-in. At this point the expectation of calling is still positive despite what some people might think:

• Overpair (AA,KK,QQ): Hand odds are 60%-40% for my opponent. EV = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = -$64 + (0.40*$213) = $21.2
  
  
• Straight (78, KQ): Hand odds are 74%-26% for my opponent. EV = -$64 + (0.26*$213) = -$8.62
  
  
• Set (99,TT,JJ): Hand odds are 70% - 30% for my opponent. EV = -$64 + (0.30*$213) = -$0.10
  
  

Therefore, the combined EV is given by: 0.33*$21.2 - 0.33*$8.62 - 0.33*$0.1 = $4.12

River: ($213) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River is one of my outs and I make my straight

Total pot: $213 Rake: $3

Hero had 8, K (straight, Jack high).
MP had K, K (one pair, Kings).

Outcome: Hero won $210

My opponent had an overpair (the worst hand he could have) and I take his money... "iiiiiiiiii" <-(I'm happy when I win), he should have made a much larger raise preflop in order to eliminate as many players as possible from the hand.

My opponent's comment at the end of the hand was "you fucking lucky donkey"... These kinds of comments amuse me endlessly for two reasons: first of all, it's always entertaining to make other poker players mad and, more importantly, it shows that people don't have a clue of how to play: I made the correct play on the turn and on the river. As I've shown above, this play has a positive expectation, that is, if I repeat the same play a sufficiently large number of times I will make money. You could argue that the 7h on the river has a lucky card in this particular situation but, at the end of the day, winning or losing at poker has little to do with luck.

Poker Thoughts: Folding Premium Hands

There are times when it is advisable to fold premium hands such as AA and AK after the flop. This is particularly applicable under the following circumstances:

1. Opponent is a very tight player (typically VP$IP: 15 \ PRF: 12 or below)
2. Opponent is at least somewhat competent
3. Opponent simply calls a preflop raise (or, better yet, a preflop 3-bet)
4. Opponent check-raises your flop raise
5. Opponent shows strength on the turn by betting into the pot if he is out of position or re-raising again your turn bet if he is in position

Under the circumstances discussed above, it is usually a good idea to fold an overpair such as AA or KK. Here is a hand that illustrates this:

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

CO ($69.95)
Button ($67.85)
SB ($99.40)
BB ($103.65)
UTG ($198.50)
Hero (MP) ($99.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold
Small blind is (14/10/1.5) over 94 hands (tight, not very aggressive player)

Flop: ($8) 4, 6, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $15, Hero calls $10
Flop is dangerous: it is the perfect flop for a connector-type hand (typical hand that one would simply call from the small blind). SB check-raises my $5... I should have just called with the intention of folding if opponent showed strength on the turn.

Turn: ($38) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24
Opponent shows a lot of strength by betting big out of position. I should have folded here. However, the turn is a total brick and I decided to call in case SB was betting a straight draw (not likely considering how tight he is and his lack of aggression)

River: ($86) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $56.90 (All-In), Hero raises to $57 (All-In)
At this point I just call knowing I'm beat by either a flopped straight or a flopped set turned into a full house by an irrelevant river card. I should have folded again here.


SB had 5, 5 (full house, fives over sixes).

Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and sixes).

Outcome: SB won $196.80

An example of poor play by me...

Poker Thoughts: Bluffing (II)

Continuing with my previous post, this is an example of how not to bluff:

Opponent is a total fish (VPIP: 48.65 / PFR: 0 / AF: 0.78). He obviously doesn't have a clue of what he is doing.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

MP ($102.75)
CO ($96.50)
Button ($98.50)
Hero (SB) ($97.50)
BB ($54.85)
UTG ($221.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 5

1 fold, MP calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Fish calls from middle position (as usual) and I complete from the small blind with A5o

Flop: ($3) A, 5, 4 (3 players)

Hero bets $3, 1 fold, MP calls $3

Monster flop (flop galactico). There is no way I can put the fish on any range of hands (he has been calling 50% of the hands preflop). However, I know he is always going to call my bet if he is on diamond draw or if he has Ax so I bet pot and fish calls.

Turn: ($9) 3 (2 players)

Hero bets $9, MP calls $9

There is no reason for me to slow down because I need to protect my hand from a diamond on the river. The chances that the fish has a deuce are very slim so I keep firing away. At this point I'm convince he either has Ax or he is on a flush draw.

River: ($27) 9 (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $27, Hero calls $27

The river is a complete blank. It does not complete any draws so either the fish made his hand on the turn or he has nothing at all. If he had a straight on the turn I believe he would have probably raised my turn bet so at this point I'm pretty sure he either has a pair of aces or a busted flush draw.

If I fire another bullet and the fish has nothing he will fold his hand so I give him the chance to bluff at the pot. I check knowing that I'm going to call any bet. The plan works: the fish bets pot and I call (note that there is no value in raising because if the fish is indeed bluffing he will just fold to any raise). He could also have A9 or a random set so I don't want to raise and give him the chance to beat me for all my money.

Total pot: $81 Rake: $3

Hero had A, 5 (two pair, Aces and fives).

MP had J, Q (high card, Ace).

Outcome: Hero won $78

This is an example of how to use other people's addiction to bluffing to your advantage: give them a chance to bluff their busted draws and call their river bluffs. In this case it is obvious that my opponent's bluff did not satisfy the second requirement I discussed in my previous blog entry: he chose to bluff on a river card that was a complete blank so his river bet was not credible (It is very unlikely that the 9s could have helped him in any way).