Inspiration

There is snow everywhere... I have the feeling this is going to be a great ski season. Here is some inspiration by Seth Morrison, the best skier ever. For those of you who may be wondering: no, he is not Austrian (there are decent skiers who are not Austrian-born, as amazing as this might be ;P)



"going to need this"... lol

Poker Thoughts: Odds

I just came back from running. The track was closed so I had to jump the fence but it was very relaxing: I was the only one running, the lights were off so everything was dark and you could see the stars. It was a little bit cold but I ran with my North Face jacket on so hopefully I won't get sick tomorrow...

I've been thinking about a very basic concept in poker which is usually misunderstood by beginners: the number of outs available to make your hand and how to calculate your odds. "Outs" are those cards that can complete your draw and give you a winning hand. It is important to keep in mind that you rarely know how many outs you really have because your opponent's hand is unknown. However, if you're able to put your opponent on a reasonable range of hands you can usually figure out how many outs you have and whether it is profitable to call your opponent's bet in order to "buy" an extra card and try to make your hand.

Here is an example of how sometimes a drawing hand can actually be ahead of a made hand due to the enormous amount of outs left in the deck:

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($66.12)
MP ($102.15)
CO ($111.55)
Button ($119.78)
SB ($135.55)
Hero (BB) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, UTG calls $1

Here MP makes a very small raise and he gets 4 callers (I'm in the big blind and I call the extra dollar with a weak hand because there are so many callers that I'm getting good odds to call with pretty much any random hand)

Flop: ($8.50) 9, J, 10 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, MP raises to $34, 1 fold, Hero calls $34, 1 fold

Monster drawing flop for me: I get an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. I'm assuming any club, any 7 or any Q will give me a winning hand so I have 9 outs for the clubs, 3 outs for the three sevens left in the deck (the 7c has already been counted as part of the 9 clubs) and 3 Queens (Qc has also been included in the 9 clubs that will give me a flush). Therefore, I have 15 outs.

However, the action before me has been very strong: UTG has bet pot and MP has re-raised pot. This strong action leads me to believe that MP has a made hand that he is trying to protect from a club draw. Therefore, he probably doesn't have any clubs and my outs to the flush draw are good. He could have a made straight with QK, an overpair (QQ, KK, AA) or a set (99, TT, JJ).

At this point there are $8.50 + $8.50 + $34 = $51 in the pot and I need to pay $34 to see an extra card. Is it a profitable call?

Options:

• Opponent has an overpair (QQ, KK, AA). In this case it's a coin flip: 50.5% for my opponent vs 49.5% probability of winning the hand for me. Therefore, in this case my call is clearly profitable: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 49.5%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.5 * $85) = $8.5 per hand. Note that these are only the exact pot odds but my opponent still has a $66.15 stack behind him so my implied odds are much better (Implied Value is a cool concept that takes into account future betting but we'll leave that for another day).
  
  
• Opponent has a made straight with KQ or 78. In this case he is a 56% favorite vs my hand. Therefore, my EV is: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 44%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.44 * $85) = $3.4 per hand. Still a profitable call even if my opponent already has the straight!
  
  
• Opponent has a set (99, TT, JJ). In this case I'm in worse shape: I'm a 61%-39% underdog so my EV is: Net cost to play = -$34; Pot value = $17 + $34 bet + $34 call; Odds to win = 44%; Net Profit = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = - $34 + (0.39 * $85) = -$0.85 per hand. I would be losing $0.85 per hand in the long run if my opponent always had a set in this situation.

Now, I really don't know what my opponent has but I could say he has a 33% chance of having each of the hands discussed above. Therefore, my combined EV would be 0.33*$8.5 + 0.33*$3.4 - 0.33*$0.85 = $3.65 per hand on the long run.

Note that the expected value calculated above does not take into account the fact that my opponent still has $66.15 left. The odds of making my hand are computed based on two cards left to come (turn and river) and my opponent may go all-in on the turn so I may have to pay an extra $66.15 in order to get to the river. At this point, however, I'm pretty much decided to go all the way.

Turn: ($85) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $66.15 (All-In), Hero calls $64 (All-In)

The 6s is not one of my outs and my opponent goes All-in. At this point the expectation of calling is still positive despite what some people might think:

• Overpair (AA,KK,QQ): Hand odds are 60%-40% for my opponent. EV = Net cost to play + (Odds to win * Pot Value) = -$64 + (0.40*$213) = $21.2
  
  
• Straight (78, KQ): Hand odds are 74%-26% for my opponent. EV = -$64 + (0.26*$213) = -$8.62
  
  
• Set (99,TT,JJ): Hand odds are 70% - 30% for my opponent. EV = -$64 + (0.30*$213) = -$0.10
  
  

Therefore, the combined EV is given by: 0.33*$21.2 - 0.33*$8.62 - 0.33*$0.1 = $4.12

River: ($213) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River is one of my outs and I make my straight

Total pot: $213 Rake: $3

Hero had 8, K (straight, Jack high).
MP had K, K (one pair, Kings).

Outcome: Hero won $210

My opponent had an overpair (the worst hand he could have) and I take his money... "iiiiiiiiii" <-(I'm happy when I win), he should have made a much larger raise preflop in order to eliminate as many players as possible from the hand.

My opponent's comment at the end of the hand was "you fucking lucky donkey"... These kinds of comments amuse me endlessly for two reasons: first of all, it's always entertaining to make other poker players mad and, more importantly, it shows that people don't have a clue of how to play: I made the correct play on the turn and on the river. As I've shown above, this play has a positive expectation, that is, if I repeat the same play a sufficiently large number of times I will make money. You could argue that the 7h on the river has a lucky card in this particular situation but, at the end of the day, winning or losing at poker has little to do with luck.

Poker Thoughts: Folding Premium Hands

There are times when it is advisable to fold premium hands such as AA and AK after the flop. This is particularly applicable under the following circumstances:

1. Opponent is a very tight player (typically VP$IP: 15 \ PRF: 12 or below)
2. Opponent is at least somewhat competent
3. Opponent simply calls a preflop raise (or, better yet, a preflop 3-bet)
4. Opponent check-raises your flop raise
5. Opponent shows strength on the turn by betting into the pot if he is out of position or re-raising again your turn bet if he is in position

Under the circumstances discussed above, it is usually a good idea to fold an overpair such as AA or KK. Here is a hand that illustrates this:

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

CO ($69.95)
Button ($67.85)
SB ($99.40)
BB ($103.65)
UTG ($198.50)
Hero (MP) ($99.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold
Small blind is (14/10/1.5) over 94 hands (tight, not very aggressive player)

Flop: ($8) 4, 6, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $15, Hero calls $10
Flop is dangerous: it is the perfect flop for a connector-type hand (typical hand that one would simply call from the small blind). SB check-raises my $5... I should have just called with the intention of folding if opponent showed strength on the turn.

Turn: ($38) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24
Opponent shows a lot of strength by betting big out of position. I should have folded here. However, the turn is a total brick and I decided to call in case SB was betting a straight draw (not likely considering how tight he is and his lack of aggression)

River: ($86) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $56.90 (All-In), Hero raises to $57 (All-In)
At this point I just call knowing I'm beat by either a flopped straight or a flopped set turned into a full house by an irrelevant river card. I should have folded again here.


SB had 5, 5 (full house, fives over sixes).

Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and sixes).

Outcome: SB won $196.80

An example of poor play by me...

Poker Thoughts: Bluffing (II)

Continuing with my previous post, this is an example of how not to bluff:

Opponent is a total fish (VPIP: 48.65 / PFR: 0 / AF: 0.78). He obviously doesn't have a clue of what he is doing.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

MP ($102.75)
CO ($96.50)
Button ($98.50)
Hero (SB) ($97.50)
BB ($54.85)
UTG ($221.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 5

1 fold, MP calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Fish calls from middle position (as usual) and I complete from the small blind with A5o

Flop: ($3) A, 5, 4 (3 players)

Hero bets $3, 1 fold, MP calls $3

Monster flop (flop galactico). There is no way I can put the fish on any range of hands (he has been calling 50% of the hands preflop). However, I know he is always going to call my bet if he is on diamond draw or if he has Ax so I bet pot and fish calls.

Turn: ($9) 3 (2 players)

Hero bets $9, MP calls $9

There is no reason for me to slow down because I need to protect my hand from a diamond on the river. The chances that the fish has a deuce are very slim so I keep firing away. At this point I'm convince he either has Ax or he is on a flush draw.

River: ($27) 9 (2 players)

Hero checks, MP bets $27, Hero calls $27

The river is a complete blank. It does not complete any draws so either the fish made his hand on the turn or he has nothing at all. If he had a straight on the turn I believe he would have probably raised my turn bet so at this point I'm pretty sure he either has a pair of aces or a busted flush draw.

If I fire another bullet and the fish has nothing he will fold his hand so I give him the chance to bluff at the pot. I check knowing that I'm going to call any bet. The plan works: the fish bets pot and I call (note that there is no value in raising because if the fish is indeed bluffing he will just fold to any raise). He could also have A9 or a random set so I don't want to raise and give him the chance to beat me for all my money.

Total pot: $81 Rake: $3

Hero had A, 5 (two pair, Aces and fives).

MP had J, Q (high card, Ace).

Outcome: Hero won $78

This is an example of how to use other people's addiction to bluffing to your advantage: give them a chance to bluff their busted draws and call their river bluffs. In this case it is obvious that my opponent's bluff did not satisfy the second requirement I discussed in my previous blog entry: he chose to bluff on a river card that was a complete blank so his river bet was not credible (It is very unlikely that the 9s could have helped him in any way).

Poker Thoughts: Bluffing

Last night I got back home and played a short poker session. All the mess in my life has prevented me from playing as much as I would have liked lately so I enjoyed putting in a few hands yesterday.

From time to time I'll be discussing a few poker concepts on my blog and I've decided to start with 'bluffing'. Bluffing is a highly misunderstood and very often misused concept due mainly to all the poker shows and poker movies that people watch on TV. Poor players tend to bluff way too much and often pick terrible spots to bluff. I'll try to set the basic requirements for achieving a successful bluff and, then, show a hand I played yesterday where these requirements are met.

To bluff means to get someone to fold a better hand than yours. This obviously poses some difficulties because if your opponent has a made hand, the only way you can make him fold is by representing an even better hand, which can only be achieved by betting. For a bluff to be successful you must make this play against a tight opponent: loose players and fish in general do not like to fold hands so you should never attempt a bluff against this type of players. In a future post I'll discuss how to make money from loose players which is by 'value betting' (the counterpart of bluffing).

The second condition for achieving a successful bluff is to be able to represent a hand that is better than your opponent's hand. This means that you must be able to read your opponent and put him on a range of hands that is bluffable: in general, if you think your opponent has a set or better you should never try to bluff him regardless of how tight he is.

Summary of conditions for bluffing successfully:

1. Your opponent must be a solid, tight player. Opponents with VPIP below 20 and PFR below 16 are perfect candidates.

2. You must be able to put your opponent on a relatively narrow range of hands and the board must be such that your bluff is credible (there must be an obvious possibility of you having a better hand than your opponent's).

Here is a hand I played yesterday where the above conditions are met:

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

SB ($93.92)

Hero (BB) ($95.75)

UTG ($119.95)

MP ($201.20)

Button ($89)


The Button is a tight player: VPIP: 18 / PFR: 12 / AF: 2. A preflop raise percentage of 12% means that this player raises 12% of his starting hands. However, since he is a competent player, he will raise a much wider range from the button, probably up to 20% of his hands (this includes any pocket pair, connectors higher than T9s and any Ax except for A8o and lower or A3s and lower.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 7

2 folds, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Button raises (as expected) and here I think about putting in a 3-bet and taking the pot right there. However, I decide to just call and see what happens, knowing that he could have pretty much anything.


Flop: ($6.50) 3, 6, A (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets $5, Hero raises to $15, Button calls $10

Button makes a standard continuation bet of $5 into a $6.5 pot. This is a good pot for c-betting since the flop contains a high card and two low cards without too many draws (only a flush draw). Since I expect a c-bet from my opponent on this flop pretty much 100% of the time regardless of his cards, decided to put in a decent raise of $15. At this point he will only continue with the hand if he has an ace or a flush draw.

Button calls my $10 raise and I put him either on an ace or a flush draw. However, there are a lot more hands that contain Ax than two spades so I put him on an ace with any kicker.


Turn: ($36.50) J (2 players)

Hero checks, Button checks

The turn is an irrelevant Jack of clubs. I check, representing a flush draw and he checks behind. His check clearly means weakness: if he had a strong ace (AK, AQ, AJ or even AT) he would have bet in order to protect his hand from a possible space on the river. His check indicates that he does not want to play a big pot with his hand. I'm hoping for a spade on the river so I can represent a flush.


River: ($36.50) 6 (2 players)

Hero bets $36.50, 1 fold

The perfect card comes. The 6s pairs the board and completes the flush draw so now I can represent my flush (even trips would not be out of the question since I could have anything after calling his raise preflop from the BB). I bet pot and my opponent folds after thinking for a while. I'm pretty sure he had Ax (note that a donkey would have not folded any ace on this spot so you need to be aware of who you are bluffing)


Total pot: $36.50 Rake: $1.80